To calculate the sensitivity scenarios, we apply the same approach and assumptions as for the main scenarios. For the Moderate Ambition (Fuel Cell) scenario, we assume the price for hydrogen for the consumer in 2030 and 2035 to be at €6.50 per kg for a 50:50 mix of “blue” hydrogen (produced from fossil natural gas, in combination with carbon capture and storage) and “green” hydrogen (produced from renewable sources) (Hydrogen Council, 2020). For the societal calculations, we assume the tax share of the hydrogen price in 2030 and 2035 to be identical to electricity, at 45%. The upstream emissions from producing a 50:50 mix of blue and green hydrogen are assumed to be 2,360 g CO2 equivalent/kg, based on an upcoming ICCT report.
Table 15 summarizes the resulting savings from a consumer perspective. For the Moderate Ambition (PHEV &eFuel) scenario, it is impossible within the first eight years of ownership to make up for the necessary technology and fuel investments in either 2030 or 2035. The Moderate Ambition (Fuel Cell) scenario is identical to the main scenario for 2030. For 2035, payback is reached within the second year of ownership in the fuel cell scenario but with fewer savings for consumers than in the main scenario.
